Por: DENNIS FALVY

El autor se pregunta, si la crisis que se anuncia ,vendrá por el continente europeo.Y señala la honda preocupación que el FMI tiene con el banco alemán “ Dutsche Bank” del cual ya hemos informado en post anteriores su posición sumamente precaria, agravada por el tema de las tasas negativas de interés(INRP) .Su reducción en su precio accionarial es de casi 1/3 lo cual es crítico. Y la cosa es tan complicada que se dice que este banco tiene nada menos que 75 trillones de dólares en los productos derivados (  ( lo que  en Perú sólo una elite entiende qué diablos son) y lo que por un mil demonios representa 20 veces el PBI alemán. Yo tengo amigos que me dicen que no asuste, que diga cosas positivas, como es el caso que la General Electric se afianza en la Cuba de los hermanitos Castro, lo que me parece bacán. Pero cómo ocultar que este banco alemán haya hecho de las suyas con los derivados que son la escoria de Wall Street ;  hay gente que señala que nuevamente Alemania , cuya economía depende en demasía de sus exportaciones a la Zona Euro, tiene enorme problemas entre la del este y la del oeste. Que la brecha, pese a los años, no se ha cerrado. Y este complejo de cosas que acontecen en el mundo aquí en Perú ni por asomo se conocen. Los medios de comunicación,entre farándulas y programas políticos de TV con conductores que en su mayoría son una vergüenza, desinforman. Y ni que decir de los políticos . Para que decir más. Lean el post e infórmense. En Alemania cuando Hitler que no era un tipo más, como lo ninguneaban sus enemigos y en la cárcel escribió Mi Lucha, advirtiendo de sus locuras de la raza superior y su profundo odio a los judíos, pues en unos pocos años armó la II Guerra Mundial. Y vaya que cambió el mundo. Los EEUU se aprovecharon del pánico a fin de salir de la recesión que causaron los gnomos de Wall Street y los banqueros, con lo de Bretton Woods, así como el Plan Marshall y luego inmiscuyendo al FMI en los gobiernos como los nuestros, gobierno militar revolucionario incluido,para lo cual usaron asimismo el Banco Mundial y el BID.

Hoy la cosa va por el lado de los soberanos y cada vez que el gobierno peruano los coloca y obviamente tiene mas demanda que oferta, pues el imperio y los que lo acompañan, hacen lo que quieren con hoy la maquinita electrónica de hacer dinero , sin absolutamente ningún respaldo sino el querer salvar el “establishment”.Aquí los burros de los medios de comunicación, le creen al MEF y al BCRP y concluyen que la economía peruana está de la pitri mitri. Que tales imbéciles.Pero en fin, yo estoy en lo mio y mi conciencia los invita a salir de su letargo y descubrir la realidad. Esa que a millones de judios cuando Hitler ascendió al poder, se les dijo y advirtió y tanto miedoso y cojudo que existía, se compraron eso de que ese pobre diablo histérico y hablador, era simplemente un cabo en la Primera Guerra Mundial y que no había aprobado su ingreso a la escuela de bellas artes. Los campos de concentración en el año 1945, mostraron el horror de la “Solución Final”. Hay voces que señalan que los tambores de guerra están ahora en Euro Asia. Y vaya que no parece broma. Aunque aquí con un mausoleo construido por los familiares deSendero, el PPK tiene que pronunciarse mediante la prensa (¿Qué le pasa a este, que se desgasta en cojudeces?) y el Alcalde de Comas apoyarse en el Derecho Administrativo para liquidar ese cetro de peregrinación posible . Si somos un país menos que desarrollado, que permitimos que caviares y ONG financiadas, persigan a los soldados que nos liberaron de estos malditos maoístas, los mismos asesinos que cruzaron el paralelo 38 en la Guerra de Corea. Y que este bobo de presidente en su viaje turistico a la propia china ,  porque lo reciben bien, les echa flores en su propio país comunista , el muy simplón este.

AQUI EL POST EN MENCION

THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS WILL COME FROM EUROPE!

By : Chris Vermuelen

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial system stability assessment report on identified one bank in Europe, Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), as the TOP bank that poses the greatest systemic risk to the global financial system. Systemic risk was identified as a major contributing factor in the financial crisis of 2008. This is, essentially, the risk of contagion by the failure of one firm leading to failures throughout its industry.

On February 24th I talked about DB (Deutsche Bank) as the next major bank to fail. Since then, its price has plunged 31% and it is likely headed much lower yet.

IMF: The Top Bank That Poses Global Financial Risk Is DEUTSCHE BANK!

Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP!

Deutsche Bank was historically one of the most respected banks in the world. Today, it is increasingly the subject of reports that it is on the verge of collapse, which is primarily due to a massive exposure to derivatives estimated at $50 to $70 trillion. The bank has struggled continuously since the 2008 financial crisis, and its stock price, as of late July 2016, stood at a new seven-year low of just $14.57 per share; this is less than 10% of its peak price in 2007, before the financial crisis.

The bank’s CDS spread shot up to recent highs (a CDS is a measure of risk – higher is bad), and its share price hit 33 year lows. DB has been struggling in Europe’s negative interest rate environment. Negative interest rates have been crushing European and Japanese banks. Deutsche Bank’s CEO John Cryan told analysts that banks will increase fees and take other measures that will be passed on to customers.

The bank was hit with a $2.5 billion fine in October 2015 for its involvement in the LIBOR scandal regarding interest rate rigging. In January 2016, it announced a record loss of more than $6 billion for 2015, which was a stunning reversal from a 2014 profit of $1.6 billion. In my past articles, I issued a warning that Deutsche Bank was massively leveraged and that its problems were most probably insurmountable. In June 2016, the Fed announced that Deutsche Bank had failed its stress test for the second year in a row. The bank was also hit by the BREXIT decision, seeing as it derived nearly 20% of its revenues from the United Kingdom.

DOES DEUTSCHE BANK HAVE SIMILARITIES TO LEHMAN?

The biggest problem that Deutsche Bank faces is excessive leverage on its balance sheet. It faces insurmountable challenges from poor-performing core businesses and a lack of capital. I believe that the company ultimately must raise more equity capital to solve its leverage problems. Deutsche Bank's valuation highlights the market's pessimism. As of June 15th, 2016, the bank traded at 27% of tangible book value, which means that the company is worth less than its liquidation value.

In 2008, failures at Lehman Brothers and American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) led to a run on banks and imperiled the financial system. Similarly, a failure at Deutsche Bank will have catastrophic consequences for the banking system during 2016.

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has ordered Deutsche Bank AG (DB) to pay $14 billion in order to settle claims of miss-selling mortgage-backed securities. Deutsche Bank said it would fight a $14 billion demand by the U.S. Department of Justice to settle claims that it miss-sold mortgage-backed securities, which raises questions about the future of Germany's largest lender.

The bank's market value is about $18 billion. A pending fine of $14 billion is not a good sign.

The bank, which is already battling multiple legal cases, has only around $6 billion in its litigation reserves. Therefore, paying a $14 billion fine would seriously impact the capital structure of the bank. It is important to note that Deutsche Bank has already been struggling in terms of profitability.

THE DESTRUCTION OF AN ILLUSION:

Last Monday, September 26th, 2016, their stock crashed yet again, down another 6%. Its bonds have slumped, while the cost of credit default swaps are essentially a way of hedging against a collapse. It all has a very 2008 deja vu feeling to it.

Markets should be bracing themselves for the worst outcome. The European debt crisis will create long-term systemic risks for ALL banks. Shares in all European banks continue to lag, while, at the same time, U.S. indexes are making all-time highs!

Deutsche Bank has struggled in Europe’s negative interest rate environment, and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out a government rescue of the bank very recently. Deutsche Bank has the second largest derivative book in the world, behind JP Morgan, and that is indeed a serious concern. If the viability of Deutsche Bank is put in jeopardy, many other Euro banks will go under as well, which would induce global turmoil reminiscent of 2008. The IMF has highlighted Deutsche Bank as the most important net contributor to systemic risk. Once confidence is lost, a bank is in big trouble. If Deutsche Bank does go under, it will most likely take Merkel with it and quite possibly the euro as well!

THIS IS THE BIGGEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY OF YOUR LIFE!

The difficulty in identifying asset bubbles is directly related to credit expansion. The problem is not the asset bubbles, whether they be in stocks, housing, or student loans.

This is merely a symptom of a deeper condition. The real threat is the underlying credit expansion by easy monetary policies that has created these asset bubble problems in the first place.

Every crisis also brings an opportunity with it, hence, let's make the best use of the opportunity before the price of gold and silver blows through the roof. It is better to invest now and see our investments multiply, instead of waiting for the crisis to start, as, by then, more than half of the rally would be behind us.